Grabow feels better. Will he be?

Grabow's back. See what I did there?

The Cubs have recalled John Grabow off the 15-day disabled list and sent Mitch Atkins to reexamine a career choice that has seen him as less desirable than John Grabow in the eyes of the Chicago Cubs front office.

John Grabow of the 9.45 ERA. John Grabow who has exactly one run allowed to match each of his 23 appearances. The guy with the 4.95 BB/9 innings rate. The one allowing opponents to hit .362, to reach base at a .431 clip, and to slug .611 against him. Barry Bonds had a career OPS of 1.051; batters facing Grabow this year trail Bonds only slightly with an OPS of 1.042.

Most fans are understandably irate that Grabow is returning to this team, but I want to give him the benefit of the doubt that maybe, just maybe the problem in 2010 has been an injury that he's not bringing back with him. Because, if we find a way to wipe our memories clean of the filth that has been his season thus far, no one was this disappointed with John Grabow's status as a Chicago Cub.

Oh, I know all too well that many people hated the signing, which is why they always cite the total amount he's being paid over this year and the next ($7.5 million) as if he's being paid that much annually; that mistake is only half as bad as it's being made out to be. Still, many Cubs fans were unhappy that the Cubs paid that much money to a marginally serviceable reliever with a relatively lucky streak of late (at the time . . . clearly his luck has run out in 2010).

For his career, Grabow has had a WHIP floating between 1.2 and 1.5. In 2008 he had a deceivingly low ERA (2.84) because of an impossibly high LOB% (85.5). No one strands 85% of their baserunners. John Grabow did it that year. On the other hand, no one strands just 56.8% of their baserunners either, and John Grabow is doing it this year. His career rate is 73.4%, so 2010 definitely looks like more of an aberration than 2008.

That's just the thing. None of Grabow's career numbers are anything close to this bad. Something had to have changed. He's only 31. It's not a great leap to blame 2010 on an injury. Still, I remember thinking the same thing about Aaron Miles last year, and we all know how that ended up.

I'm not saying we should put supreme confidence in the guy, but it makes sense to give him a chance to prove he can still pitch. It's not like the World Series hangs in the balance, here.

Adding Insult to Insult

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The ex-Cub the media just won't leave alone is back in the news today. That's right, Ronny Cedeño finds his name in ignominious headlines because of the Pirates' latest batting order decision.

Poor E6 (as my friends at LOHO like to call him). Last year he was made expendable by the acquisition of fellow light-hitting utility infielder Aaron Miles. As if that weren't enough, this year Pirate manager John Russell had decided he'd like his pitchers to hit ahead of Ronny and his much-maligned tilde, according to the Bucs' website:

Russell said that Andy LaRoche's plate patience makes him a good fit to hit seventh, one spot in front of the pitcher. Shortstop Ronny Cedeno will then slot into the No. 9 spot, effectively making him the leadoff hitter after the first go-through of the lineup.

"Cedeno is going to see better pitches to hit," Russell said. "It frees Ronny up to be more aggressive."

Still, Cedeno will have to show an ability to consistently get on base for this lineup to set up well for the top of the order. Cedeno is a career .240 hitter with a on-base percentage of just .280.

Spin those facts and quotes however you want them, but the only way I know how to react to it is with a big ol' "Ouch."

Maybe Ronny can take some solace in knowing that the man who once replaced him, Aaron Miles, not only returned to the NL Central via an ever-so-brief stint in the AL West, but he also knows how it feels to bat behind the pitcher. Miles has started 41 games in the number 9 hole (all of them in the NL). So for the 16 times the Reds and Pirates square off, Ronny has a chance of not being the worst hitter on the diamond.

Hang in there, Ronny. We're pulling for you.

A Few Small Repairs

I've made a couple changes to the site. Not wholesale changes or even dramatic ones, just a few minor adjustments. And that's not because the site doesn't need work, it's just . . . well, what am I gonna do? I'm not exactly chiseling rough edges off the Michelangelo. Oh, and I'm not raising payroll, either. But you know, I think these relatively small additions to life at And Counting might just help out.

The situation here isn't all that different from where the Cubs are right now. Look, last offseason Jim Hendry made some moves that didn't work out. You could call them great moves that went bad, or foolish risks that were doomed from the start. Actually, it's really easy now to say that they were all ridiculously misinformed—but so is this blog, so who am I to judge?

This offseason, Hendry has subtracted just about all of last offseason's moves (the Mark DeRosa toothpaste can't be squeezed back into the tube). Bradley's gone. Gregg is gone. The Aarons both Heilman and Miles. We bid farewell to Rich Harden and Jake Fox, and we'll miss a little bit of Ted Lilly at the outset of the season. But when you look at the 2009 contributions of the dearly departed Cubs, is the absence of any of that really going to sting?

So I look at the additions, the small changes, the slightly altered logos and DISQUS comments of this 2010 Chicago Cubs team. Marlon Byrd. Xavier Nady. Clubhouse gallbladder infection, Carlos Silva. And let's not forget new guy, other new guy, and the dude we got for Jake Fox. None of these guys are going to reconfigure the Cubbie universe. They won't win Nobel Prizes. But the the Cubs don't need wholesale changes. They just need to tread water.

If you want to see the statistical projections, you can check them out at ACB. The Cubs aren't bad. They're not as good as the Cardinals (who suck, by the way). They're not as good on paper as last year's paper team. They might not even be as good on paper as last year's team was on the field.

But I like this team. I expect Soto to have better luck (let's hope his eyebrows weren't the source of his power). I expect Soriano to be healthier and better. I expect Zambrano to be worse and luckier. Marlon Byrd will be good. Someone I've never heard of will be good. The pitching staff will be the least of the Cubs' problems. I expect the sportswriters to fade into the dingy background of the press box. I expect to be wrong about oh so much. But in the end, or at least on the way to the end, I expect to enjoy the 2010 season.

Jon Heyman thinks the Cubs struck out. I think the Cubs took two steps forward and one and a half steps back. If they can just stay afloat until June, Jim Hendry might make a real move, and this team just might kick a little ass.

A Biblical Guide to Baseball Prophecy

This post may very well be of no interest to anyone, which would hardly make it the first of its kind. If I could call any subject matter my niche, it would be things no one cares about enough to read. But to be more specific, in terms of sheer volume, the two topics I've written the most about are probably baseball and the Bible. The audiences for both are small enough, but the overlap between the two is impressively minuscule. But despite the almost nonexistent intersection of the disparate groups, this post is born out of their improbable similarities.

What I've noticed is this: there's a big similarity between biblical prophecy and baseball statistics and the way both have been received, dispensed, and interpreted.

Since I'm posting this on a Cubs blog, I'm going to focus on the baseball side of things, particularly the statistical realm. But since I know next to nothing about statistics, I'm going to weigh this sucker down with Bible talk. If the verbose introduction hasn't served as warning enough, I should also caution you that I'm not exactly a Bible scholar either. I mean, in the general community of Cubdom, I probably know more about biblical prophecy than most . . . but certainly not all. And among the people I know who would be most eager to discuss the translation of Isaiah 7:14 in the Septuagint, I don't know that any would give two craps about Fielding Independent Pitching.

So, chances are I could talk about either topic to the other audience without ever being exposed as a fraud. I'm okay with that. Now, on the off chance that anyone is still reading, I'll press on to something resembling a point.

Most people, biblically inclined or not, equate the term prophecy with the foretelling of future events. But the fact of the matter is, most of the content of biblical prophecy had less to do with judgments that lay ahead and more to do with sins that had already transpired and wayward beliefs and practices going on at the time. Sure, virtually every prophet predicted something about the future, but many of those forecasts were fulfilled in multiple manifestations separated by many hundreds and sometimes thousands of years. And some predictive prophecies are spelled out in fairly precise terms, while others leave room for infinite speculation and varying interpretations.

The big problem comes in the way people handle what they know, what they think they know, and what they don't care to know. Some scholars obsess over the minutiae to the contempt of the faith and the division of their ranks. Many well intentioned people project historical anecdotes onto completely unrelated current situations and future speculations. Others focus so intently on the future that they become myopic to their current travails or joys. And the masses just want to know enough Bible to feel good about themselves and roll their eyes at the mention of prophecy. But, whether any such people exist or not, the best among us have the wisdom to learn from past declarations, draw conclusions from clear predictions, and allow for the uncertainty of peering into the great beyond.

If you've yet to see a correlation between all of that and the way baseball fans view their stats, I applaud and pity you for making it this far. But I've observed a similar phenomenon among Cub fans and sabermetricians the world over.

In a debate taking place far above my level of understanding, there are statisticians on many sides of many different arguments about concepts I can hardly begin to understand. I won't go into them, I just know that there's a lot of projecting and computing and regressions and standard deviations and . . . hell, a lot of stuff I don't know. But the people who do know it can get pretty heated about their methods to the point you wonder how a game can cause smart people to act so foolish.

On the plane where commoners like me reside, there are old-school, lowbrow minds who devoutly swear by stats like Wins, ERA, batting average, and fielding percentage, and they'll tell you that the basic triple-crown stats tell you everything you need to know about a player's performance and his potential. They don't see the difference between the stats that describe the past and the ones that predict the future. Like a close-minded pastor using Habakkuk 3 to tell you rock & roll is of the Devil, they'll tell you that any stat invented after 1908 was contrived for the sole purpose of polluting young minds with the perverted rites of the cultic Epsteinian overlords.

Then there are the occasional saberlovers who are so infatuated with advanced stats that they look with disdain upon conventional numbers. If they had their way, games would no longer be decided by a statistic so rudimentary as runs but by a park-adjusted comparison of  team xBABIP, xFIP, EqA, and UZR or a sum of each player's Win Probability Added. Keith Law comes to mind. He got publicly lambasted (called an idito more than once, if I recall) for valuing FIP above ERA in his Cy Young balloting, and I can understand why. FIP is designed to ignore the factors of luck and the defensive skill behind a pitcher—but baseball isn't so kind to pitchers. Should the batting title go to the hitter with the highest xBABIP?

Crap, I'm afraid I've lost my last interested Bible reader. If you care for an overview of some of these stats . . . ugh, look them up. It's 4 in the morning, I can't post every link in the world. Or go here.

Where was I? Oh, yeah. Of course, Wrigley Field welcomes plenty of visitors who have no intention of examining stats beyond finding just enough to confirm the positions they already hold about players, managerial decisions, and player acquisitions. They're mad. They're happy. They love a guy. They hate a guy. Find a stat that helps you feel better about that feeling . . . or don't. Whatever. You're definitely not reading this.

But the thing that I've learned from everything I read about baseball statistics is that some stats are really good at predicting the future and evaluating talent, even when they paint a different picture than the old-school stats that tell you beyond a shadow of a doubt what happened in the past. The typical stats are determined by tons of luck and teammate-dependent factors, but baseball is hugely affected by those factors. The advanced metrics may tell you who the best man is, but the old stats will tell you who wins.

But that doesn't mean you can dismiss the prophets who understand the stats better than you. I'll admit, most statistical methods give me a headache. I understand what's going on to some degree, but I will always need help knowing what the numbers mean, how they're computed, and where they're headed. I do know that no matter how good they are, they won't stop strange things from happening. You just hope that eventually, they'll stop stupid things from happening (cough, Aaron Miles, cough).

Prophecy, stats . . . they have nothing and everything to do with each other. Neither is necessarily predictive. Neither is necessarily relevant. But both of them will tell you the truth in a way you can't otherwise understand.  And I'll say this for sure: in life or in baseball, if you ignore the truth, you'll more often than not find yourself walking into big piles of suck left and right.

Worst Move of the Season Nominee: Trading DeRosa

Before 2009 had a chance to greet the world, Mark DeRosa was greeted instead by a call from Jim Hendry, interrupting his round of golf and his career with the Cubs. It wasn't as if anybody needed an excuse to drink on New Year's Eve (or that Hendry had an explanation for starting so early—he also signed Aaron Miles that day) but Cub fans had an extra load of sorrows to drown after hearing one one of their MVPs had joined a new Tribe.

A day hasn't gone by since then without discussion of this deal among the Cubs faithful. His departure and consequent performance with other teams escalated to near Favresque proportions. We all know the Cubs missed him. We all know he didn't do that great in 2009. Most statistically minded folks know that DeRosa's 78 RBI would have ranked 2nd on this Cubs team. Granted, Aramis Ramirez was hurt for half the season . . . but that reminder just rubs salt in the wound, doesn't it?

De-Ro's defense is acceptable, not great. His speed is par for the slow Cubbie course. His average with runners in scoring position was nothing special (.256). The single biggest observable difference between DeRosa and the guy many viewed as his replacement (you know who) was his rapport with the media and fans. Okay, we really could have used that difference. I should say, you can't track a guys stats with other teams and assume he would have performed the same way with the Cubs. Maybe DeRosa would have had another career year if he'd stayed on. Maybe he would have suffered a career ending injury. Sometimes your stats take a major hit when you change teams (Exhibit A: you know who). So let's just throw the stats out the window for a second.

At the time of the deal, I thought DeRosa was a stepping stone to a Jake Peavy deal, the only thing that could have justified the move for me. But we ditched the DeRosa marijuana and never moved on to the Peavy cocaine. All we got was dirty crack (you know who). So why trade DeRosa?

Here are the numbers I care about: DeRosa made $5.5 million this year, the last in his contract. Kevin Gregg made $4.2 million. Aaron Heilman made $1.625 million. Aaron Miles made $2.2 million. Hendry even signed a free agent who made $7 million this year (you know who). Say what you want about not needing DeRosa, but who among the aforementioned players are you glad we had instead of him?

There's always the argument that we don't know how much we'll be helped by the three pitchers coming from Cleveland in the DeRosa deal. I counter that argument by saying . . . we don't know how much those pitchers will help the Cubs. We do know the help didn't arrive this year (Jeff Stevens made a negligible impact). They probably won't help us in 2010. If the GM of your $135 million team is making bad deals in 2008 at the off chance it will help in 2011, it's time to think about restaffing your organization.

Bad move, Jim. Bad move. Was it the worst? You tell me.

Other Nominees:
Firing Gerald Perry
Incessant Lineup Changes
Bullpen Design & Management
Milton Being Milton

We Could All Learn a Thing or Two from Aaron Miles

I've been pretty rough on Aaron Wade Miles this year. Heck, this year has been pretty rough on Aaron Wade Miles. He has become the Rodney Dangerfield of the 2009 Cubs, which, considering the number of Cubs having down or deplorable years, really tells you something.

But Miles hasn't lost control of his emotions on the mound. He hasn't spouted off to the media. He didn't get busted for smoking weed at the World Baseball Classic or put on extra weight. He didn't trade Mark DeRosa. He doesn't hop before he catches fly balls. He wouldn't hurt a fly on a Gatorade Machine. The only reason I and a teeming throng of others have lambasted him with gleeful mockery is that these are his stats.

I was thinking of listing some of the things I've said about him, but that would betray my genuine intentions for this post (which is why I didn't make a joke about whether or not he could hurt a fly on a Gatorade Machine . . . from now on, I'm just going to insert asterisks * in places I feel tempted to mock him). I want to commend Aaron Miles for conducting himself like a professional and, frankly, like a good man during this, the worst year in his career.

You can make fun of Miles for his size, but he's probably the same height as I am. So I can't make fun of him for that. And yes, his hitting has been miserable, although marred somewhat by injury for the first half of the season . . . second half, too, maybe? But other than that, he's done nothing wrong*.

When Miles fails on the field* he never shows his frustration. Do you know how hard that is to do*? To keep your composure when you ******. Well, it's not easy. But it is commendable. And I've just never detected anything in the way he carries himself (and believe me, I look for these things) that would identify him as the jerk I've secretly wanted him to be.

With a guy who isn't producing, you want him to give you the Todd Hundley total package. If you're gonna stink, you should be a jerk—it's just proper baseball etiquette. But Aaron Miles is not that guy. He tries hard. You can tell he wants to succeed. He just doesn't compound his baseball troubles* by making an ass of himself.

So if you ever find yourself in a situation when you're less than your best (or less than your mediocre) ask yourself this simple question: What Would Aaron Miles Do? I'm so printing up WWAMD bracelets right now.

************

UPDATE: I was trying to think what the best way to handle Aaron Miles at this point in his two year contract would be. Although it would mean eating $2 million, I wouldn't mind seeing him released. But as long as we have a couple weeks of games with no playoff implications, it might not hurt to give him the everyday job at second—or at least a handful of starts. As terrible as he has looked, I'm sure it's next to impossible to get better on the bench. If the experiment went terribly, though, I'd have to continue the barrage of insults . . . no reason for all of us to suffer.

Milton's Gone, and So Are Cubs' Playoff Hopes

There are some facts about the Cubs that don't need to be said. I've rounded them up here so they can huddle together in their unspoken misery.

• Signing Milton Bradley was a mistake.
• Suspending him was not.
• The Cubs aren't going to the playoffs.
• Even the most jaded Cubs fans still harbored a tiny vigilante voice of hope deep in their hearts that was saying, "Let's just wait and see how we* do this weekend in St. Louis."
• That voice is now muttering obscenities.
• No matter the standings, it's always nice to beat the Cardinals, especially after watching them prematurely rush the field in jubilant, firework-lit celebration.
• Aaron Miles has had a bad year.
• The Chicago media don't like Milton Bradley. (Lesson to high-school jocks: Be nice to the nerds who don't make the team and have to settle for praising you in the school paper; they will one day have the power to torture you.)
• Jake Fox is a man's man.
• Only time will tell who overpaid more absurdly: Jim Hendry for Milton ($30 million) or the Ricketts family for this team ($845 million).
• This season has been a disaster.
• Someday we'll go all the way.

*Yes, the voice deep inside the heart of skeptical Cubs fans refers to the team as "we."

Someday, We WILL Go All the Way

You remember. Last year at about this time the collective emotions of Cubmania were being swept away heavenward by the Pearl-Jammiest Cubs song ever. Eddie Vedder, the consummate celebrity Cubs fan, was commissioned by Ernie Banks (Mr. Cub himself) to write a song about the Cubs. He did, and he released it in what felt like the climactic throes of a 100-year "will they or won't they" love affair with the World Series.

Last September, that song (whether it's called "All the Way," "Someday We'll Go All the Way," or "We'll Go All the Way," I can't be exactly sure) evoked the best of feelings in me. The Cubs had the division wrapped up. The National League looked really bad and the Cubs looked really good. Maybe even 100-win good. I couldn't listen to that song without imagining the celebration of the Cubbie Championship Centennial.

Every time, the scene in my mind is the same. I run out my front door and start screaming. I run all around the neighborhood. I complete the Forrest Gump cross-continental circuit in about 30 minutes, shouting "Yeah!!!!!" for everyone in America to hear. I wind up on a mountain top where a shaft of light shines down on me, kneeling, arms extended toward the manifest glory . . . crying and covered in beer.

When that song was playing, that image overtook my brain. It was exquisite bliss. I didn't even feel like an idiot entertaining the thought of the Cubs winning it all. It felt almost real.

But, as you also remember quite well, that dream was shattered in the three ugliest baseball games ever played.

If your experience has been at all like mine, it's been hard to hear that song ever since. Not too many Cubs fans I know have that song on repeat since October 2008. Nobody was writing bonus stanzas about Milton Bradley and the Aarons Heilman and Miles during Spring Training. The pain was too fresh. The cut was too deep.

But I want to encourage you to give that song a fresh listen. When we wanted to feel hopeful last year, Eddie's ode to Cubdom was up to the task. Let me tell you, it can be equally mournful as the funeral dirge to this year's hopes. It has actually helped me grieve a little better and breathe a little easier.

Take a listen. Let the tears flow. The healing can't begin until the grieving is complete. There you go.


All the Way
Eddie Vedder

Don't let anyone say that it's just a game
For I've seen other teams and it's never the same
When you're born in Chicago you're blessed and you're healed
The first time you walk into Wrigley Field
Our heroes wear pinstripes
Heroes in blue
Give us the chance to feel like heroes too
Forever we'll win and if we should lose
We know someday we'll go all the way
Yeah
Someday we'll go all the way

We are one with the Cubs
With the Cubs we're in love
Yeah, hold our head high as the underdogs
We are not fair-weather but foul-weather fans
We're like brothers in arms in the streets and the stands
There's magic in the ivy and the old scoreboard
The same one I stared at as a kid keeping score
In a world full of greed, I could never want more
Than someday we'll go all the way
Yeah
Someday we'll go all the way
Someday we'll go all the way
Yeah
Someday we'll go all the way
Someday we'll go all the way

And here's to the men and the legends we've known
Teaching us faith and giving us hope
United we stand and united we'll fall
Down to our knees the day we win it all

Ernie Banks said "Oh, let's play two"
Or did he mean 200 years
In the same ball park
Our diamond, our jewel
The home of our joy and our tears
Keeping traditions and wishes made new
A place where our grandfathers, fathers they grew
A spiritual feeling if I ever knew
And if you ain't been I am sorry for you
And when the day comes with that last winning run
And I'm crying and covered in beer
I'll look to the sky and know I was right
To think someday we'll go all the way
Yeah
Someday we'll go all the way . . .

The Nightmare 9 (and a closer to choke on)

On Wednesday, MLB took advantage of 09/09/09 by inviting me (and millions of other people, but whatever) to come up with my dream lineup of 9 Cubs. Tonight, the dream is over. This is my all-nightmare team. The worst possible lineup I can conceive. The team I couldn't bear to watch (and I have watched some real crap over the years).

For this list, I didn't go old school. I'm limiting the squad to players I've watched play, because as fabulous as the baseball historians are at waxing eloquent about the greats of yesteryear, they don't quite pack the emotional punch with their yarns about the Aaron Mileses of long ago. I need to remember that punch-to-the-gut feeling I'd get when Todd Hundley would strut to the plate, top two jersey buttons flapping in the arrogant wind. The stats alone don't tell that story. So here they are. The worst team I can imagine, and the reliever who would blow the few leads he ever could inherit from the Sultans of Suck:

Leading off, playing CF, it's Corey Patterson, 2005. .215 AVG / 13 HR / 34 RBI / 15 SB
This was the year that the Cubs uber-prospect, lead-off man of the ever-loving future posted an OBP of .254. Regardless of how bad this team might look, the potential in the leadoff spot would forever be through the roof.

Hitting second and playing 2B, everyone's hero: Aaron Miles, 2009. .180 AVG / 0 HR / 5 RBI / 3 SB
Do I need to write anything here? I'm kind of shocked by the 3 stolen bases. I'm still waiting for the official scorer to change them all to defensive indifference, but hey, I'm glad there's a stat that likes this guy. He's got a 1.000 SB average. Yaaaay!

Batting third in RF, Roosevelt Brown, 2002. .211 AVG / 3 HR / 23 RBI / 2 SB
I didn't dislike Roosevelt Brown, but like Corey Patterson before him, he epitomized the never-blooming prospect mentality of the Cubs organization in the '90s and beyond.

The cleanup hitter on this sinking ship would be 1B Ron Coomer, 2001. .261 AVG / 8 HR / 53 RBI / 0 SB
This one is hard because the Cubs first basemen during my time as a fan, while not powerhouses, haven't been too bad. Grace was great. I love Lee. Hee Seop Choi and Julio Zuleta were kind of fun. Leon Durham and Bill Buckner were both good hitters, even if both had their fair share of colossal hope-crushing ground balls in the postseason. Coomer wasn't even predominantly a first baseman in his one year as a Cub, but whenever he was there, I knew what to expect. Stank.

In the five hole and out in LF, it's the 1992 version of Luis Salazar. .208 AVG / 5 HR / 25 RBI / 1 SB
Like Coomer, Salazar actually played the most games as a third baseman, but the competition at third for worst I've ever seen is heavier than a Hector Villanueva lookalike contest. I award this spot to Luis because I once attended a game in which Salazar watched a line drive sail over his head, turned the wrong way as the ball ricocheted off the wall behind his back, and then threw up his hands to signal for a ground rule ivy-eaten double. He realized that the ball had trickled toward the infield, picked it up, and threw the ball in too late to prevent an inside-the-park home run. Welcome to the team, Luis.

Todd Hundley, C, 2001. .187 AVG / 12 HR / 31 RBI / 0 SB

Todd Hundley had been good with the Mets. He was Cubs family, Randy's son. We weren't supposed to boo him. But he was a tool. On his best day, he was as likable as Milton Bradley on his worst, just without the 2nd half surge. I remember going to the game on Todd Hundley key chain day. I'm still saving it for the worst white elephant gift in the history of Christmas.

Jeff Blauser, SS, 1998. .219 AVG / 4 HR / 26 RBI / 2 SB
The Cubs wanted the Cub killer. They got him, and he lived up to his reputation.

Gary Scott, 3B, 1992. .156 AVG / 2 HR / 11 RBI / 0 SB
Gary "Great" Scott didn't play in a lot of games, but his Cubs career spanned two seasons of hopeless potential that he would be the one to break the since-Santo 3B drought (the one that is so long, it made this the toughest decision in the lineup). He didn't end the drought. He was a goatee away from being Aaron Miles. The list of dishonorable mentions is legendary.

Mike Morgan, P, 1994. 6.69 ERA / 2-10 / 1.810 WHIP / 1.3 HR per 9 innings
I liked Mike Morgan. I did not like seeing him on the mound to start the game. As tough a century as the Cubs have had, the 1990s was a brutal decade and Morgan's 1994 season pretty much defined the era of futility.With Morgan, expectations were never as high as his ERA and WHIP.

Pointless Closer: Mel Rojas, 1997. 4.42 ERA / 0-4 / 13 SV / 6 BLSV
Kevin Gregg doesn't really hold a candle to Mel Rojas. In '97, the Cubs very rarely had leads to begin with, so acquiring 6 blown saves by mid August was no easy task. But God bless him, Mel got the job done. The job, of course, was sucking, and he pretty much taught that freaky German Dyson dude everything he knows about never losing suction.

I would ask you to include your own suggestions for your own Nightmare 9, but I must warn you: this exercise took a lot out of me. I had to relive a lot of pain, and I was not ready. Don't face those demons unless you're willing to let them inhale your soul just one . . . more . . . time.

The 2009 Cubs: One Doodle That Can't Be Undid

Some Cub fans would like to give the last offseason the Mark McGwire treatment and just leave the past in the past. Others would like to see every move Jim Hendry made go up in a mushroom cloud. Others are still holding out hope this year will have a happy ending.

I know we can't turn back time. I know this season is all but mathematically over. But I still think we can at least try to learn from our mistakes. (Yes, I know we didn't make the mistakes and that Jim Hendry needs to do the learning in this scenario, but maybe this will at least  be fodder for some good awkward questions to ask at Cubs Convention 2010.) Hendry made a whole pile of moves after the 2009 Dodger sweep, and I want to know which one has hurt the Cubs the most.

I had my opinions, but before sharing them with the world of sorrows that is Cubdom, I was curious what other people thought. I asked my #Cubs tweeps what single move they would undo if they could. Jmkobus spoke for millions who would have never signed Bradley, opting instead for Adam Dunn, the Knight of Wrigley. Pbernicchi would be the leader of the "undo the DeRosa trade" party. Ehudmh posited that if he could reverse Hendry's initial pursuit of Milton Bradley, he could undo every other bad move the Cubs made. TheCubsInHaiku just wishes (in 17 syllables) that Hendry would have quit.

The tragic fact of the matter is that all of those arguments are better ideas than what's played out in reality in 2009. Here's a list of all of the moves since last October that involved signing new contracts, welcoming new players, or saying goodbye to former Cubs with a look at the amount of damage inflicted by each:

10.29.2008 3B Casey McGehee claimed off waivers by Brewers. His 13 HR and 50 RBI make this a pretty damaging move considering Aramis Ramirez's prolonged injury this year, but somewhat unpredictable. Cubs Richter Scale: 3.5

11.13.2008 Traded RHP Jose Ceda to the Marlins for Kevin Gregg. The opposition is slugging .436 against Kevin Gregg. The Cubs only have 3 hitters with a slugging percentage that high. Even if Jose Ceda never pitches again (and he hasn't, since the deal) this trade hurt the Cubs big time. Cubs Richter Scale: 7.5

11.18.2008 Re-signed Ryan Dempster to a 4-year, $52-million contract. Given the length of the deal, this could get worse, but I wouldn't call Demp's numbers in 2009 damaging. Cubs Richter Scale: 0.5

12.11.2008 Bought RHP David Patton from the Reds for cash. This is one move (let's see if there are more) that actually helped the Cubs. David Patton has been pretty decent. Cubs Richter Scale: -0.5

12.12.2008 Signed LHP Neal Cotts, RHP Chad Gaudin, and OF Reed Johnson to 1-year contracts. Setting aside Reed, who is great to have on the team, injured or not, the Cotts and Gaudin signings didn't really work out so good. Cotts especially had a disastrous time with the big-league club, albeit limited. Cubs Richter Scale: 3.5

12.16.2008 Signed free agent Joey Gathright to a one-year contract. He left town quicker than you can say "car-jumping," in a later move. Cubs Richter Scale: 0.085

12.31.2008 Traded Mark DeRosa to Cleveland in exchange for pitchers Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub. The Cubs have struggled to find run production anywhere in the lineup. 2B has been an offensive black hole. When Ramirez was out, 3B produced similar suction. The pitching prospects might help down the road, but this season, only Stevens has helped at all. What's worse, DeRosa has made the division-leading Cardinals that much better. This one hurts more the longer the season goes on, and nobody but nobody liked this deal at the time it was made. Cubs Richter Scale: 9

12.31.2008 Signed POC Aaron Miles to a 2-year contract. Yes, the same day the DeRosa deal went down, Hendry also signed the human out. The New Year's Eve drinking started plenty early in the Hendry house. This has to go down as the single worst day of the offseason. Aaron Miles was sketched in as a possible everyday starter on the Cubs roster. He's hitting .174. In the 2nd half, he's hitting .038. The Cubs are paying him two and a half million bucks to do that. Cubs Richter Scale: 5 (but considering how tiny Aaron Miles is, that's a tremendous shock)

1.5.2009 Signed LHP Bill White (aka Guillermo Blanco) to a minor league deal. I put this in here only for the Blanco joke. Cubs Richter Scale: NA

1.6.2009 Traded RHP Jason Marquis to the Rockies for RHP Luis Viscaino. In the baseball sense, this move helped the Rockies immensely. He has 14 wins (and has reached double-digit win totals for 6 years running) and a 3.75 ERA. From the business side, the Cubs wound up paying Luis Viscaino a few million bucks to get released by every team in baseball. Since financial restrictions were such a pressing factor in the offseason, it would have helped to gain a productive salary instead. While I don't think the Cubs have been hurt all that much by not having him, the Rockies are leading the Wild Card race, so . . . that hurts. Cubs Richter Scale: 2.5

1.8.2009 Signed Milton Bradley to a 3-year, incentive-laden contract worth up to $30 million. I've said before that Cub fans put too much blame on Bradley for the 2009 debacle. It is pretty standard for newly signed veterans (Alfonso Soriano, Jacque Jones, Derrek Lee, Moises Alou) to struggle in their first half-season at Wrigley. Since then, Bradley has been productive and healthy. Some chastise him for the distraction he has been, but I don't see how anything that distracts attention away from this team could be viewed as a bad thing. Bottom line: if a clubhouse distraction is the reason you're losing, you suck. Yes, the Cubs did commit a lot of money to Bradley, but not so much that they couldn't have kept DeRosa and just not traded for Kevin Gregg or signed Aaron Miles. Cubs Richter Scale: -2.0 Yes. That's right. I'm saying he's helped the Cubs. Deal with it.

1.18.2009 Traded Felix Pie to the Orioles for pitchers Garrett Olson and Henry Williiamson. Painful, but hardly damaging for this season. Although it did pave the way for their next move. Cubs Richter Scale: Owie

1.28.2009 Traded Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno to the Mariners for Aaron Heilman. I feel like Heilman has gotten some bad breaks and that he would be better as a starting pitcher than a reliever. But he hasn't provided much relief to Cub fans. He has a WHIP of 1.5, an ERA of 4.35, and opponents are slugging .422 off of him. I view him as the replacement for Bobby Howry, and he's been precisely that. Not good. Cubs Richter Scale: 6.5

1.30.2009 Signed Paul Bako to a 1-year contract. He didn't make the team. Cubs Richter Scale: --

2.2.2009 Traded Rich Hill to the Orioles for PTBN and traded Michael Wuertz to the A's for prospects Richie Robnett and Justin Sellers. Rich Hill is struggling. But Michael Wuertz has a 3.09 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a .205 batting average against for the A's. I always liked Wuertz, even though he struggled with his control (his strikeout to walk ratio is up to 4.3 now, though). Given the struggles of the Cub bullpen, this oft overlooked deal deserves more attention. Cubs Richter Scale: 7.4


Aside from minor league deals and other insignificant moves, that's the sum total of the 2009 Cubs offseason. Now, you might be wondering about letting Henry Blanco and Kerry Wood walk away, but in my opinion A) those aren't really moves, they're just moves that didn't get made; and B) neither one would have been a whole lot of help to this Cubs team. Koyie Hill is a white Hank White. Kevin Gregg has been Kerry without the blisters.

So, yeah, if I could undo one move, I have to admit it would be the DeRosa trade. If the Cubs had not acquired Kevin Gregg, Aaron Miles, and Aaron Heilman, we still could have afforded Milton Bradley.  If we've learned nothing else, it's that we should take away Jim Hendry's cell phone this New Year's Eve.

NOTE: If you're on Twitter, let your displeasure be heard (and read) by clicking the "tweets" box to the left.

You Can Schedule a Make-Up Game, But You Can't Make Them Play

In a display of passive-aggressive nonviolence, the Cubs staged a sit-in at Wrigley Field today.

Said Alfonso Soriano, "We were promised a day off on September 3, and a day off we shall have."

The Cubs adamantly refused to raise a glove in defense or a bat in anger. Seen pacing placidly in the dugout, Lou Piniella seemed to understand the protest, even if he didn't agree with the tenets of the players' beliefs.

"Look, I'm not the Dalai Lama.You gotta talk to the players about that. We've seen our fair share of good baseball this year, and we've had some bad baseball. That . . . I don't know what that was, but it wasn't baseball."

The White Sox seemed just as confused as anyone. At first, they didn't realize they were allowed to score while the Cubs weren't playing. But by the middle innings, a few White Sox leisurely circled the bases, some of them with their wives, children, and pets. Ozzie Guillen was, predictably, the only South Sider who wasn't left speechless.

"I don't know what they were doing, but I figure, why not win a game if they're gonna let you? It was like that scene outta Bad News Bears when the coach's kid hangs on to the ball and the fat catcher runs around the bases, you know? Hey, we tried to give up some runs just to make it look real, but I don't think Lou wanted to let that happen. He put Aaron Miles at the plate. I don't know how to let Aaron Miles score a run. We're not allowed to put a tee out there and he's too small to try to hit with a pitch. It's not my problem. Let the Ricketts family sort that out."

It is not yet known whether Aaron Miles was in on the civil disobedience or if he was simply doing his best to reach base. As for the rest of the team, they plan to return to their baseball playing duties tomorrow after the team travels to New York to play the Mets.

Ten Things Cub Fans Can Still Look Forward to in 2009

It ain't over 'til it's over. You can take that truthism as a blessing or a curse, depending on your state of perpetual hope or interminable anguish. On the positive side, here are 10 things we still have to look forward to in a season most of us wish would just die already:

10. The return of Bobby Scales. It's hard to remember the adrenaline shot the substitute teacher gave the Cubbies in his last fill-in stint in the majors, but I seem to recall feeling happy for a few days. I'd welcome another dose right now.

9. The unconditional release of Aaron Miles. I hope life treats him kind, and I hope he has all he dreams of. I wish him joy and happiness, but above all this, I wish . . . he was gone. And I-yee-I-ee-I will always *deep breath* loathe you-whooooo, and I will always . . . sing it, Whitney.

8. The sale of the team. It's still not over. It won't guarantee success. It won't become final final until after the season is done. But I can't wait to put the biggest distraction of the season (yes, even bigger than Milton Bradley) behind us.

7. One more game against the White Sox. Losing will be fuel on the depressing fire. Winning will do little to lift my spirits. But when the game goes down on Thursday . . . aw heck, never mind. I'm not looking forward to this at all. I hate it when we play the Sox pre-October.

6. The Wild Card. Will the Cubs win the wild card? Probably not. But the wild card race should be fun to watch. The National League is really just not very good this year, which makes that last playoff spot all the easier to grab. I'm not so much of a purist that I don't enjoy a whole scrum of teams battling over a playoff spot they don't deserve.

5. The eruption of Mt. Lou. You. Know. It's. Going. To. Happen. I'll bring the popcorn.

4. Randy Wells. I'm genuinely excited to see how Randy Wells finishes out this year. He may have seen his Rookie of the Year chances sail into the left-field bleachers, but he still has a chance to reach the teens in wins.

3. Aaron Milesless baseball. Even if he doesn't get released, the expanded September roster now gives Lou no excuse whatsoever to ever put Aaron Miles on the playing field. If I see him so much as lift the Hello Kitty backpack, I'm launching an investigation into Lou's sanity.

2. Da Bearsssss. Bearss. Ditka. Cutler. Bearss.

1. That guy. Somebody always has a good September. A lot of times it's Soriano. Soto had some good moments in last year's last month. In case you forgot, many people were ready to write off Zambrano's 2008 until his no-no on September 14. It might not save the Cubs. It might not add to the wild card drama. But there will be somebody who makes September memorable.

It's reason enough for me to keep watching.

Twitter Is Cubs Therapy

Does Kevin Gregg [bottom right] owe Shane Victorino an apology?

A funny thing happens when a guy fails colossally for the Chicago Cubs: he starts to get blamed for more than his fair share of guilt. If it goes on long enough, the poor sap can achieve legendary status of abysm (yes, it's a word; no, it doesn't mean what I'm implying it means . . . yet; it will catch on as the act or state of being abysmal).

It's called . . . the reverse Chuck Norris effect.

The positive side of the routine has gained popularity on a commercial level with the Dos Equis beer ad campaign about the Most Interesting Man in the World, but we all know it originated with Chuck Norris. You can read them on into infinity (which Chuck Norris has counted to . . . twice) at www.chucknorrisfacts.com. It has some real gems like these:

When Chuck Norris does a pushup, he isn't lifting himself up, he's pushing the Earth down.

AND

Chuck Norris is the reason why Waldo is hiding.

You can find a great alternative on Twitter that sings the praises of 24's Jack Bauer. Just follow JackFacts24 (or merely follow the link; you need not tweet to read tweets) to read more tremendous founts of hyperbolic grandeur like this one:

Jack Bauer's killed so many bad guys that #5 on the World Most Wanted list is a Malaysian kid that downloaded the movie Dodgeball.

See. It's funny. It even reaches peak hilarity in the baseball world over at The Ted Lilly Fan Club. But when it happens in the opposite direction, sadness creeps in. Don't get me wrong, it's enormously funny, especially when it happens live on Twitter, as it did last night. The downside is that sad events (like anything involving Aaron Miles or Kevin Gregg) precipitate the folly.

The joking began directed at the indescribably bad Aaron Miles. I suggested he was the reason Tony LaRussa started batting his pitchers 8th, and things snowballed from there. People started adding the hashtag #reversechucknorris to their insults to make it easier to track (you can read the conveniently organized hatin' right here).

But by the time Kevin Gregg gave up his third game-losing home run of the year, any ire directed at Miles shifted dramatically and overwhelmingly at Kevin Gregg, and not even those goggles could have shielded him from the hatred radiating off our collective screens. The rage was too acute, too intense to channel into meticulous hashtaggery. No one thought to accuse Kevin Gregg of being the real beer tosser (until now) as tweets gave way to torches, and the fun of it vanished.

Had it not been for the outlet of ridicule that Twitter provides, though, I'm afraid the rage of that moment would have been much worse. It's at times like these that Twitter comes in real handy. It gives any fan a chance to vent without destroying things. It makes the bad a little less painful. And it makes the good (like when I had the good fortune of predicting Kosuke's 3-run homer against the Pirates) even more fun than usual.

Again, even if you're not a tweeter or twitterer or tweetist, you can follow the commentary stream in any number of platforms. Cubscast has its convenient and friendly 140 Characters from Home Plate page. You can search for #cubs on Twitter. Or if you join Twitter, you can comment from within the MLB Gameday applet (for free . . . for now). It won't fix the closer situation, but it will help us deal with the brokenness. If you're already tweeting, be sure to follow me, @Adambuckled . . . or not. I tweet too much.

Top Ten Things About a Cubs West Coast Trip

The Cubs are about to begin a string of late-night (for me) contests against those West-Coast adversaries the Padres and the Dodgers. And while these road trips bring their fair share of negatives in both the baseball world and real life, I did manage to come up with these ten pluses:

Top Ten Things About a Cubs West Coast Trip

10. You're barely awake enough to appreciate the sadness of a tough loss.

9. Tom Skilling is even sexier after midnight.

8. Eating your traditional 8th-inning nachos means you can call in sick to work without lying.

7. Afternoon and evening freed up for more important matters like reworking your fantasy football draft strategy.

6. Easier to curse Aaron Miles freely and loudly after the kids go to bed.

5. 90210 airs at its originally scheduled time.

4. Dodgers series = four straight nights of watching the camera cut away to Alyssa Milano.

3. Real good chances of falling asleep before Marmol or Gregg blow the game.

2. Gail Fischer and Todd Hollandsworth not afraid to drop F-Bomb in after-hours postgame.

1. Milton Bradley's swing gains two hours.

You Won't Like Me When I'm Angry

Image courtesy of Marvel.com

You know I try to be positive, right? If you've read my Cubs profile, you know I do my best to think from the perspective of the players, the manager, and the general manager and to try to understand why they do what they do. I give them the benefit of the doubt.

As this Twitter discussion with Lou, co-host of Cubscast, shows, Monday's game inspired a flash of violence that made an impression on my coffee table. But the anger faded. For the most part, I try to stay positive and hope for the best. Heck, my last post was a Romper Room clip. But yesterday's game had me furious—and I'm still fuming. There might be serious furniture casualties if this keeps up.

In some ways, yesterday's loss to the Phillies was the easiest to stomach of all the games in the sweep. The Phillies who are supposed to hit well did. The reigning AL Cy Young showed the award was no fluke. Ryan Dempster pitched okay except for a few costly mistakes. The bullpen didn't implode. The offense was stymied by a pitcher who does that to teams on a regular basis.

But here's what really browned my ivy:

• Milton Bradley was moved from the #2 spot, where he's excelled, to the #3 spot, where he has no business hitting.
• Kosuke hit 2nd, instead of leading off where he has excelled. (For a detailed and extremely clever explanation of why both these moves were idiotic, read on.)
• Ryan Theriot hit leadoff, where he has done well, but not as well as when he hits 7th or 8th.
• Aaron Miles is still on this team, and he played yet again.

So I'm angry at Lou for screwing up the lineup, especially for messing with Milton Bradley's hot streak. I mean, COME ON! Bradley clearly thrived in the lower pressure of the #2 slot. He's hitting almost 200 points better as the #2 hitter than in the 3-slot. When he tries to get on base and hit good pitches hard, he's brilliant. When he tries to hit for power like a #3 hitter, he is not good. Lou: put Milton back in the #2 slot and do it NOW.

And I'm mad at Jim Hendry. I won't criticize his off-season moves, because very few of them have turned out to reflect statistical projections. I won't blame him for that. But I WILL blame him (in all-capped italics if I must) for the move he's not making now. Aaron Miles needs to go, and it should have happened a long time ago.

The Cubs have Aaron Miles because the Cardinals decided he wasn't good enough to play for them any more. It's not like releasing him would bring shame to anyone but Aaron Miles. I don't hate Aaron Miles. He seems nice. But he has not played at a major-league level all year long. Maybe his injuries excuse that. Maybe the frustration is eating him up. Whatever the cause of his meltdown, I feel bad for him. But I don't want him around anymore an any role more demanding than assuming Yosh Kawano's clubhouse duties.

You can read Aaron Miles's full stats at baseball-reference.com, but I'll highlight these for you:

• He's hitting .191.
• He is slugging .257.
• His OBP (.231) is lower than the literacy rate of Somalia.

I'm not mad at Aaron Miles. I'm sure he's doing everything he can. But it's time for Jim Hendry to give him a wonderful assortment of parting gifts including the home game version of The Mendoza Line Challenge. Miles is taking up a roster spot, and the list of players more deserving of being on the roster than Aaron Miles is long and includes my brother's roommate's cat.

I'm fed up with inexcusable bad decisions. Yesterday's game was the prime example of stupid, indefensible management. Jim, Lou, I have been your advocate and defender, but you are testing my freaking limits.

[Yosh Kawano image courtesy of Baseball Hall of Fame]

TUTR Time: Halladay on His Way to Cubs?

Roy Halladay is a stud. The Cubs now need pitching help after Ryan Dempster broke his big toe celebrating a Cubs victory (yes, I am going to make a thrill of victory, agony of de-feet joke, albeit parenthetical). The Toronto Blue Jays are shopping Roy Halladay.

Naturally, this has sent the wheels into motion here in the home offices of TUTR (Totally Unrealistic Trade Rumors). Here's what my sources have uncovered:

Jim Hendry and J. P. Ricciardi are close to a deal that would bring Roy Halladay to the Friendly Confines. The deal wouldn't be without its cost to the Cubs.

People close to the negotiations say the Cubs may be willing to part with utility infielder Aaron Miles and cash considerations. Miles's inability to recover from a seemingly minor injury and proven lack of big-league power make him Major League Baseball's last rock-solid example of a player who is completely beyond the realm of reckless PED speculation. The Cubs, nay, the country, are afraid to lose their sole untainted insurance policy.

I say, let's take that chance.

Jake Fox's Bat vs. Sweet Lou's Temper

The Chicago Cubs are reportedly recalling Jake Fox and his uber-bat from AAA, where he's hitting somewhere in the neighborhood of infinity with a google homers and 100% of his team's RBI's. (They also brought up SS Andres Blanco and LHP Jason Waddell.)

With this move, Cub fans are rewarded with three big items off their wish list while shattering one fairy tale:

• Jake Fox has a chance to prove he's not just a AAA legend.
• Aaron Miles will take a break from sullying the Cub lineup card, as he's being placed on the 15-day DL with a bad swing and a partially strained statistical projection.
• Neal Cotts is being sent down to the minors where he is rumored to be trade bait for a Denny's Grand Slam Breakfast and a Bob Walk rookie card.
• Bobby Scales, the exciting spark plug and fan favorite substitute teacher, has been sent down to AAA as well. It's sad to see him go, but his recent bout with the flu probably saddled him with more sick days than he could afford.

Seeing Miles and Cotts out of action will cause much jubilant relief among Cubbie faithful, but it's the Jake Fox call-up that really has fans buzzing, especially given their recent offensive woes. But all of Fox's minor-league exploits amount to little more than Jack Squat—he has to show his stuff on the major-league level. And it seems slightly doubtful that he'll see everyday playing time unless he shows he can play 3B.

Remember those stories of how SF Giants 3B Matt Williams used to practice fielding grounders with a ping pong paddle instead of a glove? The word on Jake Fox is that he looks like he's doing that, only not as successfully. We'll see how fast he cools off.

And speaking of cooling off, Cubs manager Lou Piniella is staying surprisingly cool during this offensive economic downturn, and it's sending some Cub fans' frustration over the boiling point. Lou says blowing up with a hell-fire hissy fit doesn't really work in firing up a team (Lord knows, he's done the research). He says now is the time for him to be calm and reassuring, but many fans are still begging for a classic Lou tirade. 

So here's the big question I'm hoping you can answer. Which will happen first: Jake Fox's bat cooling off like an iceberg, or Lou Piniella's temper erupting like a volcano?